Methodology

Updated: 2026-02-25

Core formulas and quality controls behind EV, arbitrage and odds movement outputs.

EV = (true probability × odds) - 1

Arbitrage when reciprocal sum < 1

Movement = ((current - opening) / opening) × 100

Expected Value (EV)

EV is calculated as (true probability × offered odds) - 1, where true probability is estimated from normalized implied market probabilities.

Displayed EV values are bounded and validated to reduce distortion from stale or anomalous prices.

For 1X2 markets, arbitrage exists if (1/home + 1/draw + 1/away) is below 1 after event and market consistency checks.

Stake distribution is based on reciprocal weighting, with additional plausibility checks to avoid false signals.

Movement percentage is computed as ((current odds - opening odds) / opening odds) × 100 for comparable market snapshots.

Outlier controls are applied to reduce corrupted spikes and suspended-market artifacts.